LNG Market Outlook: Storage/Demand Remain Top Drivers For Europe

This current feature was extracted from the latest edition of Poten’s LNG Market Outlook, a monthly service published on March 26, 2024.

After declining in 2023, LNG imports are forecast to increase for Europe in 2024 and 2025. Gas demand has declined drastically since the beginning of the Ukraine war but utilizing storage to ensure energy security remains a key driver of LNG imports. Gas demand is forecast to see growth in 2024 as lower prices encourage some higher demand from the power, residential and commercial sectors.

The LNG import forecast for Europe has been lowered because of greater transparency in the historical data on ship-to-ship transfers and re-exports in the region. Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain are the largest re-exporters in Europe. The 2023 LNG import data for Europe now shows 125 MMt as opposed to 128.6 MMt in the previous forecast. Growth rates for the 2024 and 2025 LNG import forecast were kept constant at 1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 to 126.3 MMt and 129 MMt, respectively. In the forecast, as well as recent history, storage and gas demand will be the major factors influencing LNG imports for Europe.

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