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LNG supply rising to meet demand growth in Asia by 2024

This current feature was extracted from the latest edition of Poten’s LNG Market Outlook, a monthly service published on June 29, 2022.

The future of global LNG supply is a key concern given the scarcity of today’s market. High prices have incentivized LNG producers to maximize operations and produce above nameplate capacity but that is still not enough to satiate consumers on the demand side of the equation. The US is forecast to lead the way in terms of supply growth between 2022 and 2024 with exports rising by 11.4 MMt from 79 MMt/y in 2022 to 90.3 MMt/y by 2024. Without the outage at Freeport, US exports could have reached roughly 85 MMt/y this year.

LNG export comparison 2022 vs 2024

 

Comparing the import forecast for 2022 and 2024, there is a large drop in European imports of 19 MMt. The assumption in Europe is that pipeline imports will increase and/or natural gas demand will decline due to the substitution of alternative energy sources. Northeast Asian imports are forecast to climb by 19 MMt by 2024. South and Southeast Asian imports are forecast to increase by a combined total of 22.5 MMt by 2024.

South and Southeast Asia are anticipated to see the most growth in LNG demand at 34% and 52%, respectively. Population and economic growth are forecast to be key drivers of natural gas demand growth in Asia in the power sector and LNG will play a critical role in meeting those needs.

Import comparison by region – 2022 vs 2024

On June 8, 2022, there was an explosion at Freeport LNG on the US Gulf Coast. The site is still being assessed, but the current timeline for restart is 90 days with an unclear schedule for the ramp-up to more normal rates. The accident appears to have affected the storage tanks. If that is the case, the return to strong operations could be rapid if they can isolate the tanks. Freeport exported an average of 1.2 MMt/m during the first five months of 2022.

Freeport LNG monthly exports/average

 

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