The impact of electric cars on future gasoline demand
Transportation fuels make up more than 55% of global oil demand and if the world population switches from cars, trucks, planes and ships powered by fossil fuels to ones that use batteries or – in the case of airplanes and ships – non-fossil fuels, it will have a dramatic impact on global oil demand. Over the years, the debate has switched from if that will happen to when it will happen. The situation in shipping and aviation is complicated. In the shipping industry there is no clear frontrunner with respect to the energy source that will replace fuel oil as bunker fuel.
In aviation we are even further away from a credible and scalable alternative to jet fuel. The situation in cars and light trucks is different. Electric vehicles (EVs) are the clear alternative to the gasoline and diesel-powered cars and sales have accelerated in recent years. However, the question remains: how quickly will electric cars replace vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) and where will that happen first?
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