All Bark and No Bite?

April 14, 2023 Will the OPEC+ production cut impact Russian crude oil flows?

OPEC+ unexpectedly decided on Sunday, April 2nd to cut production by nearly 1.7 Mb/d (aptly named by the IEA: “OPEC+ Sunday Shocker”).  By Monday, oil prices had increased by about 6%.  In addition to the impact on international benchmark prices such as Brent, WTI and Dubai, it also pushed the price of Russian Urals crude up.  As a result, Urals pricing jumped above the G7 imposed price cap of $60/barrel.  If Urals pricing is maintained at these elevated levels (or goes even higher), the tanker industry will start to wonder about the implications for Russian oil flows.

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