LNG thus far in the new century is marked by successive booms and busts, and it would be foolish to assume they will not continue to occur. A first key forecasting challenge is to avoid being swayed by the swings: staying on a fundamentals-based course rather than lapsing into proximity biases. Overly optimistic or pessimistic forecasts lead to errors in investment timing, project structure, financing, and ultimately bad investments or missed opportunities. A second, more subtle forecasting challenge is to take ownership of forecasts, resisting the tendency to delegate accountability to the audience. Forecasters must be truly independent.
Recent forecasting across the industry exemplifies these pitfalls. Shell’s survey of LNG consultant forecasts and the IEA’s World Energy Outlook are windows to pitfalls at the global market level. China and emerging markets serve as more specific case studies of exuberance. There is, of course, no “magic bullet” to ensure forecasts meet world-class standards of rigor. But human talent and checks and balances within the forecasting process are critical.
Join Majed Limam, Manager, Americas – LNG and Natural Gas Advisors for a webinar on January 28 as we address these challenges.
Topics to be addressed include:
• Turbulent times in LNG
• Avoiding forecasting bubbles
• Taking ownership vs. delegating commitment
• China exuberance
• Emerging market challenges
• Checks and balances and human talent
Presented by: Majed Limam, Manager, Americas – LNG and Natural Gas Advisors, Poten & Partners
9 AM Houston | 10 AM New York | 3 PM London |
5 PM Athens | 6 PM Doha | 7 PM Dubai |
11 PM Perth/Singapore