Rising Oil Market Uncertainty Surrounds Tanker Market

The recent Oil Market Report (OMR) from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was unremarkable in its lack of revisions to its forecasts. The agency kept both oil demand growth estimates and non-OPEC supply forecasts roughly unchanged, while providing small baseline adjustments to demand. Beneath this forecasting calm, however, the agency highlighted the conflicting forces that are leading to greater oil market uncertainty. Increasing tension between ample crude and tighter product stocks, tepid oil demand and accelerating security concerns in the Middle East are all contributing to the confusion. Rising refining margins are encouraging higher-than-expected crude runs, potentially buoying tanker demand, but supply disruptions and demand destruction remain a medium-term concern. Download here