LPG Market Outlook: Near-Term Trade Flows Shift

This current feature was extracted from the latest edition of Poten’s LPG Market Outlook, a monthly service published on August 11, 2023.

OPEC+ announced that voluntary production cuts are going to be extended through September 2023. The news of the extension resulted in a noticeable surge in oil prices, but the rally appears to have stalled on demand uncertainty in the near-term. Nonetheless, OPEC+ crude oil production in July was at its lowest level in roughly two years.

LPG exports from the Middle East in 1H 2023 were 3% higher than they were last year over the same time frame, despite the production cuts. However, with production beginning to fall more rapidly in 3Q 2023, exports in 2H are forecast to be lower than they were in 1H.

As a result, Middle East exports are forecast to decline in 2023 to 41.4 MMt from 41.8 MMt in 2022.

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