The Art Of The Iran Nuclear Deal
May 16th, 2025:How would the tanker market respond to a new deal?
In recent days there has been increased chatter in the market about a possible new Iran nuclear deal. The most recent round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran started in April after President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in which he expressed a desire to start new nuclear talks. Several meetings took place during April and May and during the most recent discussion, which concluded on Sunday, May 11, the U.S. presented the Iranian delegation with a written proposal. While it appears that the countries are getting closer to a deal, it could take a lot more time to negotiate the details. However, there is momentum towards an agreement currently. There are reports that senior diplomats from Iran and France, the U.K. and Germany are meeting in Istanbul today (Friday, May 16). This is important because, according to European diplomats, the three European powers have decided to trigger “snapback” sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal if no new deal is reached by August. So, while these negotiations are ongoing, we want to take a look at what will happen to the tanker market if a deal is reached and sanctions on Iran are lifted. To get a sense of how the oil and tanker markets may respond, it is useful to take a look at what happened in 2015, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the first “Iran Nuclear Deal” was concluded.
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