Small Changes Can Have A Big Impact

13 Feb 2026: More TonMiles tighten the tanker market They say that the only constant in the tanker market is change and we have seen that again in 2025.  After comparing the top 20 Dirty Trade Routes of 2025 with those of the previous year, we can see a number of small changes that are having an impact on global TonMile demand.  There are also routes that do not change.  Just like in our annual ranking of the top dirty spot charterers, which has Unipec as the perennial No.1, the largest dirty trade route in both barrels per day and TonMiles per day was and is the AG to NE Asia (China) route.  However, it is important to notice the difference between the “market share” in TonMiles (23%) and the share of pure volume in barrels per day (15%).  This is even more pronounced for the No.2 and No.3 routes.  While the Gulf of Mexico to NE Asia route represents 5% of total TonMiles, the volume is only 1.4% of global trade.  Distances matter, especially in the tanker market.  When geopolitical tensions and conflicts lead to sanctions, the markets inevitably become more inefficient, and this often has an outsized impact on tanker rates.  The sanctions on Russia and Iran are an example of this.  Without the sanctions, India would never have become the second largest buyer of Russian crude.  Iran is in a similar situation, with China as their only remaining client.  If the sanctions against these countries were to be lifted or relaxed, this would dramatically change global trade flows.  A more efficient distribution of their export barrels would likely lead to a reduction in global tonmile demand.  The changes in the Venezuelan oil trades after the U.S. took control of the country’s production and exports, provides a sneak preview of the impact of these changes.  And Venezuela is a much smaller producer that Iran and Russia. Please fill out the form to read the article