OPEC Remains Opaque

August 8th, 2025:Quotas are up, but actual production and exports are lagging OPEC crude oil production and, in particular the cartel’s exports, are an important driver for the crude oil tanker market. The production of most independent oil companies in the world is based on market signals such as price, profitability, as well as economic conditions. This is not how OPEC countries typically operate. OPEC is a cartel of major oil exporting countries that coordinate their production to maintain a stable oil market and secure a steady income stream for their members. While OPEC was formed in September 1960, formal, audited production quotas were only introduced in the early 1980. This was a response to growing non-OPEC supply, weakening global oil demand and internal conflicts, such as the Ian-Iraq War. Since then, quotas (which are periodically renegotiated) have been central to OPEC’s production policy, despite frequent disputes over quota violations and overproduction by members. However, over the last 10-15 years, several factors have made it very difficult to track developments within OPEC. The Arab Spring, which spread across the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 disrupted oil production in several member countries. U.S. sanctions impacted production in Iran and Venezuela over the last decade. At the same time, the expansion to OPEC+ made the group significantly larger. This made it more difficult to coordinate production. This became apparent when OPEC tried to respond to the collapse in oil demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. In April 2020, OPEC+ agreed to the largest production cut in history, lowering production by 9.7 Mb/d. These were unwound starting in July 2020. In today’s Tanker Opinion, we will discuss the 2.2 Mb/d voluntary cuts that eight OPEC producers agreed to on November 30, 2023. What is the impact on the oil and tanker markets now that these cuts are being unwound? Please fill in below form to continue read.