OPEC Adds Fuel To The Fire

May 9th, 2025:Another production increase suggests a change in strategy About one month ago, we wrote our tanker opinion about the surprise decision of OPEC+ to increase production well above the monthly increase previously indicated (“OPEC Springs A Surprise”). On April 3, the eight OPEC+ countries that committed to voluntary production adjustments in 2023, decided to bring back 411,000 b/d in May, three times the April 2025 increase of 137,000 b/d. Most analysts expected this to be a one-off production boost. However, one month later, on May 3, the OPEC-8 group (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) decided to repeat the same 411,000 b/d increase for June. While this OPEC group can change their mind any time, it appears that these accelerated increases are the new normal. At this rate, the OPEC-8 group will return the 2.2 Mb/d of voluntary cuts to the market by November 2025, rather than September 2026, as per the original schedule. In this week’s tanker opinion, we will discuss the potential implications for the tanker market if OPEC-8 stays the course. Please fill in below form to continue read.