China’s Balancing Act

29 May 2026: China holds the key to the tanker market. China is by far the largest crude oil importer in the world, most of it seaborne. Over the last 10 years, China’s seaborne imports grew from 6.9 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2016 to 10.6 Mb/d in 2025, an average increase of 5% per year. This upward trend continued in the early months of 2026, until the closure of the Strait of Hormuz started to impact China’s import levels. It is difficult to overestimate the impact of Chinese crude oil imports on the tanker market. BIMCO (the Baltic and International Maritime Council), the world’s largest international shipping association, estimates that Chinese crude oil imports drive slightly more than 20% of crude tanker volumes and about 30% of crude tanker tonne-miles. Given its dependence on imports, it is no surprise that Beijing has been preparing for potential supply disruptions, such as the one caused by the current conflict in the Middle East. How China is dealing with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what Chinese refiners will do when it reopens will have a significant impact on the tanker market. In this Tanker Opinion we will dive into some of these factors and their potential impact.