What Will 2026 Have In Store?

Oct 17th, 2025:What will crude oil overproduction do to tanker rates? Global oil demand growth declined markedly in recent years after the strong recovery from the COVID depression. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil demand increased by 2.8 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2022 and by 1.9 Mb/d in 2023 as the world recovered from the COVID slump. In 2024, demand is estimated to have grown by only 1.0 Mb/d but they expect the growth for 2025 to slow even further to 0.7 Mb/d with a similar growth of 0.7 Mb/d for 2026. While oil demand growth is slowing, oil supply keeps expanding at a rapid clip. Oil supply growth is expected to significantly exceed demand growth this year and next, as Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.6 Mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 Mb/d in 2026. While Non-OPEC supply growth by itself already exceeds global demand expansion, OPEC+ continues to increase their production quota as well, even though actual production growth has been lower than the quota increases. This week we will look deeper into the global supply and demand dynamics and what this could mean for the tanker market. Please fill in below form to continue read.