Europe has policy signals, established fertilizer demand and corporate decarbonisation commitments, yet few green ammonia projects have reached a final investment decision. Closing the gap requires coordinated demand support, credible certification and risk-sharing across the value chain.
A mature industry, resistant to change
Fertilizer is the most established large-scale outlet for ammonia, and it is likely to remain a major source of demand throughout the next decade. Europe therefore presents an apparent paradox. The region has a mature fertilizer industry, a substantial agricultural customer base and increasingly demanding climate policy, yet only 12% of volumes across signed offtake agreements are for applications in fertilizer production, with the majority directed towards emerging energy uses.
The imbalance appears illogical because bankable low-carbon projects require dependable offtake over long periods. Marine fuel, power generation and ammonia cracking may create important markets, but their scale and timing remain uncertain. Fertilizer, by contrast, already has production assets, distribution networks and end-users. Redirecting more project development towards this established market could reduce demand risk while supporting the decarbonisation of the agricultural sector.
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