02 October 2026
A review of Poten’s Daily Market Report, which monitors spot freight rates on many of the key tanker trade routes, shows eyewatering numbers. Across the board, tanker rates have reached levels never seen before (see Chart 1). The reasons for the sky-high tanker rates are well documented. The wars in Europe and the Middle East have created significant inefficiencies in the market. On top of that, there is the threat of attacks in areas like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Black Sea, which have spiked insurance rates and risk premiums. Widespread sanctions have also limited the availability of mainstream vessels that have the flexibility to trade worldwide.
Last, but not least, ownership of the large tanker fleet (in particular VLCCs) is more concentrated than in the past, which, in combination with the other factors, has shifted some of the negotiating power from the charterers to the owners. The big question is: How high can it go and how long will it last? It is safe to say that it has already gone higher and lasted longer than most people expected. The follow up question could be: is there a level at which freight rates start to restrict oil demand?
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