October 14, 2026
El Nino weather pattern and the timing of Qatari LNG’s return to the market are key determinants in the supply-demand forecasting this coming winter and into 2028, according to Poten & Partners.
Jon McDonald, manager of short-term forecasting at the brokerage and consultants’ business intelligence arm, told a webinar that Europe and Asia are in a bidding war for LNG cargoes.
He said European gas storage is at around 73% and is particularly low in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands.
But he said drawdowns are forecast to be lower than normal due to El Nino, which usually brings milder, wetter conditions.
This means Europe might head into winter with higher storage. But an unexpected cold winter would increase spot demand and pricing.
Poten is forecasting European LNG imports at 122.6m tonnes in 2026, down from 128.2m tonnes last year, rising to 139m tonnes in 2027 and 143.1m tonnes in 2028, driven by storage targets and lower pricing as Middle East volumes return to the market.
McDonald said Qatar’s new nameplate capacity is 64.7 mtpa.
Poten’s forecast is calculated on a base case in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens to shipping at some time in the next six months.
The analyst said it will take between two and four months for Qatar to ramp up LNG production, reaching full capacity at the end of the second quarter of 2027.
If the conflict persists through the first half, full Qatari production may not resume until the end of next year, he said.
Poten expects no incremental supply from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project until the end of 2027.
McDonald’s forecast assumes market uncertainty around safe transits through the Strait of Hormuz and “erosion of buyer faith in Qatari LNG”.
Looking at April to September this year, McDonald said global LNG imports slipped back to 195.4m tonnes from 208m tonnes in the same period of 2025.
He said the story over the summer was the high demand from South East Asia, up 24% to 18.2m tonnes, driven largely by high summer temperatures.
But in South Asia, imports fell, down 71% in Pakistan and 19% in Bangladesh, which take a lot of their supply from Qatar. They also fell in north-east Asia and Europe.
McDonald said the US is expected to lead export growth in the next two years, driven by capacity expansions.
He put US exports at around 133m tonnes this year after about 9m tonnes of additions from projects. These are set to rise to 143m tonnes in 2027 and 162m tonnes in 2028 — and could climb to nearly 200m tonnes towards the end of that year if all the planned capacity comes online.
But he sees limited export growth outside the US in this period.
McDonald said China and India are expected to lead import growth in the next two years.
Although Chinese imports are forecast to decline in 2026 to 64m tonnes, Poten sees them rising again to 80.7m tonnes in 2027 and 93.1m tonnes in 2028.
McDonald said China has just released a five-year plan calling for more use of natural gas and expanded regasification facilities, but its demand signals are “mixed”.
He assessed India’s LNG imports at roughly 25m tonnes in 2026 and climbing by 22% per year into 2028 to 37m tonnes.
To read the full article, click here.