August 2026
Turkey’s LPG import requirements have been on a gradual downward trajectory since 2023, supported by increasing domestic production and slower growth in the country’s autogas vehicle fleet. Although imports recorded a slight year-on-year increase during the first five months of 2026, domestic LPG consumption continued to weaken, suggesting that imports could decline again this year. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also expected to weigh on Turkey’s economic outlook and fuel demand.
Economic conditions remain challenging. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Turkey downward to 2.9%, compared with the 3.4% projection issued in April. This marked the second reduction in the IMF’s outlook this year. At the same time, inflation continues to erode household purchasing power. While tighter monetary policies have helped moderate inflation in 2026, the rate remained high at 32.11% in June, only slightly below 32.61% recorded in May.
Regional LPG markets have also been affected by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, which has contributed to higher energy and commodity prices worldwide. Reflecting this trend, the Sonatrach contract price (SP), the primary benchmark for LPG pricing in the region, averaged $581/t for propane during January to June 2026, representing a 13% increase from the same period last year. Butane prices showed an even stronger rise, averaging $621/t, up 19% year on year.
According to the latest figures from Turkey’s energy regulator, the country consumed approximately 3.9 MMt of LPG in 2025, with imports accounting for around 3.4 MMt. Consumption peaked 4.4 MMt/y in 2023, following which, it fell 6% in 2024 and 5% in 2025. In tandem, imports also peaked in 2023 at around 3.9 MMt/y then declined by 8% in 2024 and by 4% in 2025.
Autogas remains the dominant contributor of the country’s demand profile. The country operates the world’s largest autogas fleet, and LPG used as automotive fuel represents more than 83% of total domestic consumption.
Turley Vehicle Fleet by Fuel Type
Government incentives introduced over the past two decades encouraged widespread adoption of LPG-powered vehicles. However, consumer preferences have begun to shift toward gasoline-powered cars, hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs). As of June 2026, LPG vehicles represented 39.4% of Turkey’s total vehicle fleet, compared with 40% ten years earlier. Over the same period, the share of gasoline-powered vehicles increased from 27.6% to 31%, while hybrid and electric vehicles expanded from virtually zero to 7.2% of the fleet.
This changing vehicle mix has contributed to weaker autogas demand since 2023. Consumption of autogas fell by about 5% in 2025 to nearly 3.3 MMt. During January-May 2026, demand declined by a further 1% year-on-year to around 1.26 MMt. Residential and commercial LPG consumption also softened, falling 4% in 2025 to roughly 665,900 t and declining by another 4% during the first five months of 2026. This follows an even sharper 22% contraction in 2024.
A weakening economic environment is likely to further constrain the country’s LPG demand growth. Much of Turkey’s autogas consumer base consists of middle-income households that continue to face financial pressures stemming from persistent inflation and slower economic activity. Although LPG retains a cost advantage over gasoline and diesel due to tax incentives, broader economic weakness is expected to limit fuel consumption across all segments.
Despite sluggish domestic demand, the decline in LPG imports has been moderated by strong growth in exports.
Turkey’s LPG exports reached approximately 576,400 t in 2025, an increase of 36% from the previous year and nearly five times higher than export volumes recorded in 2020.
Export momentum has continued into 2026. During the first five months of the year, LPG exports rose another 12% year-on-year to about 322,000 t. Higher shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Bulgaria and the United Kingdom supported this growth, while exports were also expanded to new markets including Syria, Jordan, Estonia and Bangladesh. Geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tensions involving the US and Iran have created opportunities for Turkish exporters, leveraging the disruption to traditional supply routes from Russia and the Arabian Gulf.
Even before these geopolitical events, Turkish LPG companies are increasingly pursuing international growth strategies as domestic demand growth slows. Aygaz, part of Turkish Koc Holding conglomerate and one of the country’s leading LPG importer and distributors, has been actively investing in overseas markets to diversify its business and capture new sources of demand.
Bangladesh has become a key focus area for the company due to its strong LPG consumption growth potential. In 2019, Aygaz partnered with United Group, one of Bangladesh’s largest business groups, to establish United Aygaz LPG Ltd. The joint venture is involved in LPG sourcing, storage, filling and distribution activities across the country.
Turkish firms are also expanding their presence in other regions. Recently, Sudan’s Maritime Ports Authority signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkey’s Argaz for the development of a new LPG terminal at Suakin Port on the Red Sea. The project, which will follow a build-operate-transfer model, includes plans for a dedicated berth capable of handling three gas carriers simultaneously and storage capacity of 28,000 m3. Construction is expected to be completed within 12 to 18 months.
Meanwhile, Aygaz is also increasing investments in building its own fleet of VLGCs. In April, the company announced that it has signed a deal with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for two dual-fuel LPG carriers of about 90,000 m³ each. The order adds to a previous order made in January for its first dual-fuel VLGC at HD Hyundai Samho, with delivery slated for the second quarter of 2028.
This is strategic move for Aygaz indicating increased imports from the US in the future. Turkish reliance on US imports have declined since 2022 as it increased imports from Algeria. Imports from the US declined from around 1.2 MMt in 2022 to just 565,446 t in 2025, marking a 52% drop. During the same period imports from Algeria increased 25% from around 1.4 MMt to 1.7 MMt. As US exports will continue to increase at a rapid pace in the coming years. Aygas likely plans to increase sourcing from the US for both meeting domestic demand and its expanding business in other countries. Additionally, the dual-fuel VGLCs will provide the option to use LPG as fuel when the economics are favorable.
This excerpt is taken from Poten’s LPG in World Markets. Complete the form below to learn more or request a trial.