September 2026
Much of the attention surrounding the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, has focused on the country’s plans to expand crude oil production. The move ended nearly six decades of membership in the producer group and is widely viewed as an effort to gain greater flexibility over production policy and accelerate returns on substantial upstream investments.
ADNOC spent the past several years expanding its production capacity and remains on track to achieve its target of 5 mmbls/d of crude oil production by 2027, a goal that was originally scheduled for 2030. While the oil market implications have attracted considerable attention, the UAE’s natural gas, NGL and LPG growth strategy could prove equally significant over the longer term.
Unlike oil-focused projects, many of ADNOC’s gas developments are aimed at increasing production of rich gas streams, which yield valuable liquids such as ethane, propane, butane and condensate. As a result, the UAE is positioning itself not only as a larger oil producer but also as an increasingly important supplier of LPG and petrochemical feedstocks.
ADNOC’s $13.2 billion RGD program
A key pillar of this strategy is ADNOC Gas’ multi-phase Rich Gas Development (RGD) program, valued at approximately $13.2 billion. The initiative is designed to expand gas processing capacity, increase liquids recovery and unlock greater value from existing gas resources.
The first phase, approved in June 2025, included upgrades and expansion work across ADNOC Gas facilities at Habshan, Asab, Buhasa and Das Island. During its second-quarter 2026 earnings update, ADNOC announced final investment decisions (FID) for Phases 2 and 3, advancing the company’s gas growth plans.
Phase 2, valued at $3.9 billion, was awarded to Wison Engineering and will add a new 670 MMcf/d gas processing train at the Habshan complex. The project is intended to increase gas processing capacity, improve operational flexibility and support growth in the UAE’s downstream and petrochemical sectors. Start-up for the second phase is expected in 2029.
Phase 3 was awarded to Tecnimont, part of the Maire Group, under a $4.3 billion contract. The project centers on the construction of a fifth NGL fractionation train at Ruwais and is aimed at increasing recovery of higher-value liquids from rich gas streams.
In addition to the fractionation unit, the project includes gas treatment systems, propane refrigeration facilities, storage infrastructure and supporting utilities. Scheduled for completion in 2030, the new facility will be capable of processing approximately 23,000 t/d, equivalent to around 8 MMt/y of NGLs.
MERAM project adds growth
Alongside the RGD program, ADNOC is progressing the Maximization of Ethane Recovery and Monetization (MERAM) project. Scheduled for completion in 2027, MERAM will add up to 3.4 MMt/y of ethane and NGL production capacity through expansions of existing onshore gas processing facilities.
Combined, the RGD and MERAM projects will add approximately 11.4 MMt/y of incremental NGL processing capacity. This represents an increase of nearly 60% over ADNOC’s current liquids processing capability.
Today, ADNOC operates more than 10 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity across 34 processing trains and around 29 MMt/y of liquids processing capacity from four NGL fractionation trains.
Potential impact on UAE LPG supply
The expansion is expected to materially increase UAE LPG production.
Based on industry estimates, the UAE’s NGL stream typically comprises approximately 40-50% ethane, 20-25% propane, 15-20% butane and 15-25% condensate or pentanes-plus. Applying these ratios to the planned increase in NGL processing capacity suggests that the new projects could generate an additional 4.0-5.1 MMt/y of LPG production by 2030.
The ethane will be mainly consumed in the domestic petrochemical sector, particularly at Borogue and other downstream expansion projects in Ruwais. Most of the LPG and condensate will be exported primarily to Asia.
Shiptracking data indicates UAE exported around 13 MMt/y of LPG in 2025. However, part of the UAE imports captured by vessel tracking sometimes originate from Iran which is then transshipped from waters near the UAE. Some of these are difficult to track as they are shipped aboard dark fleets.
Poten estimates UAE exports around 10-11 MMt/y based on its existing production, domestic demand, export capacity and industry feedback. Around 60% of 2025 exports went to India followed by China at around 29%.
Exports during the first half of 2026 have fallen sharply, below 3 MMt due to damages to its energy infrastructures caused by the US-Iran war, especially damages to the Habshan gas-processing complex and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
ADNOC expects the full restoration of the Habshan complex to be complete in 2027. The facility is currently operating at 85% of capacity, according to ADNOC.
ADNOC may face some competition to market these new supplies in Asia where major importers like India are looking to diversify part of its import sources away from the Middle East and increase imports from the US where supplies are growing at a higher rate. Growing LPG exports from Canada will also challenge Middle Eastern export as many Far East countries have opted for Canadian cargoes amid tariff wars with the US and geopolitical disruptions from the Arabian Gulf.
Additional gas projects under development
Several other projects are underway that will support ADNOC’s broader gas growth strategy.
The Ruwais LNG project is being developed in Al Ruwais Industrial City and is expected to produce up to 9.6 MMt/y of LNG. Scheduled for completion in 2028, it is designed to become the first LNG export facility in the Middle East and Africa powered by clean electricity.
The onshore Bab Gas Cap development is expected to add more than 1.8 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity following its anticipated start-up around 2029.
Offshore Abu Dhabi, the Umm Shaif Gas Cap project aims to unlock more than 600 MMcf/d of natural gas production, along with associated gas liquids by 2030.
ADNOC’s Estidama program will expand and upgrade the UAE’s sales gas pipeline network from approximately 3,200 km to more than 3,500 km, enhancing gas delivery capability to northern regions of the country and supporting future demand growth.
Outlook
While the UAE’s departure from OPEC has been framed primarily as an oil market story, the country’s expanding natural gas and NGL sector may ultimately have an equally important impact on regional and global energy markets. Through the RGD, MERAM, LNG and gas infrastructure projects, ADNOC is laying the foundation for substantial growth in ethane, LPG, condensate and LNG production. By the end of the decade, the UAE could emerge not only as a larger crude producer but also as a significantly more influential supplier of gas liquids and petrochemical feedstocks to international markets.
This excerpt is taken from Poten’s LPG in World Markets. Complete the form below to learn more or request a trial.